Fed Radar

The bottom line

Inflation is 3.3% and rising, the Fed looks more likely to hike than cut, with liquidity steady — a cautious backdrop for crypto and risk assets.

📅 Next Fed decision: Oct 28, 2026 · in 39 days · live market odds ↗

The Fed hikes when the economy runs hot: inflation above its 2% target, a tight labour market, and policy that's still too loose. The fuller each bar, the more it argues for a hike. Live data from the Fed's own FRED database.

Historical analogue · not a prediction

First hike in ~7 months

quickest ever 0 momedian 7 moslowest ever 143 mo

In setups like today's since 1990 — inflation near 3.34% with unemployment at 4.1% — the Fed's first hike came a median of 7 months later. Historically it has happened as fast as 0 months and taken as long as 143 months. Drawn from the 15 closest historical months (e.g. 1993). History rhymes, it does not repeat — not a forecast.

Overall hike pressure

65 /100

Mixed — watch closely

Inflation above 2% target 3.34 % Core PCE (yr)

▲ rising +0.2pp/6mo2.0% target · hike pressure builds above

Too hot — hikes justified 67/100 toward a hike

Core PCE is 3.3% vs the 2% goal — the further above 2% (and rising), the stronger the case to hike. Headline CPI is 3.7%.

Labour-market tightness 4.1 % unemployment

Balanced 40/100 toward a hike

Unemployment is 4.1%. The lower it runs, the more wage and price pressure builds — the overheating signal that argues for hikes.

Policy still too loose 0.29 % real rate

Still loose 86/100 toward a hike

Fed funds 3.63% minus 3.3% inflation = a 0.3% real rate. The lower (or more negative), the more stimulative policy remains — leaving room to hike.

Expansion signal (10y–2y) 0.25 % spread

Flattening 50/100 toward a hike

The 10y–2y spread is 0.25%. A positive, upward-sloping curve is the expansion backdrop the Fed hikes into; inversion means it is late to be hiking.

Liquidity tide — Fed net liquidity$5.87T +13B/3mo

◄ Draining (QT)Flooding (QE) ►

Flat / steadythe tide under everything

Liquidity is holding steady — neither a push nor a drag on risk right now.

A weighted read of the Fed's reaction function — not a prediction of any single meeting. These are correlations and tendencies, not laws: the Fed reads noisy, revised data with long lags, and why it moves matters as much as whether it does. Source: FRED (Core PCE, CPI, unemployment, fed funds, 10y–2y). Updated 2026-09-18 22:02 UTC. Analysis, not financial advice.