Fed Radar

The bottom line

Inflation is 3.3% and rising, the Fed looks more likely to hike than cut, with liquidity steady — a cautious backdrop for crypto and risk assets.

📅 Next Fed decision: Oct 28, 2026 · in 39 days · live market odds ↗

The Fed cuts when two things line up: inflation cooling to its 2% target (the permission slip) and the job market cracking (the trigger). The fuller each bar, the more it argues for a cut. Live data from the Fed's own FRED database.

Historical analogue · not a prediction

First cut in ~30 months

quickest ever 25 momedian 30 moslowest ever 36 mo

In setups like today's since 1990 — inflation near 3.34% with unemployment 0.0 off its 12-month low — the Fed's first cut came a median of 30 months later. Historically it has happened as fast as 25 months and taken as long as 36 months. Drawn from the 15 closest historical months (e.g. 1993). History rhymes, it does not repeat — not a forecast.

Overall cut pressure

18 /100

Not yet — Fed on hold

Inflation vs 2% target 3.34 % Core PCE (yr)

▲ rising +0.2pp/6mo2.0% target · cuts unlock at / below

Well above target 33/100 toward a cut

Core PCE is running 3.3% vs the Fed's 2% goal — the closer to (or below) 2%, the more permission to cut. Headline CPI is 3.7%.

Jobs — Sahm-rule trigger 4.1 % unemployment

low 4.1%trigger 4.6%

Still tight 0/100 toward a cut

Unemployment is 4.1%, up 0.0 from its 12-month low of 4.1%. A +0.5 rise (to 4.6%) has historically forced the Fed's hand.

Policy restrictiveness 0.29 % real rate

Near neutral 10/100 toward a cut

Fed funds 3.63% minus 3.3% inflation = a 0.3% real rate. The higher this sits, the more room — and pressure — to cut.

Recession signal (10y–2y) 0.25 % spread

Flat 38/100 toward a cut

The 10y–2y spread is 0.25%. Inversion (below zero) is the classic late-cycle warning that cuts are coming.

Liquidity tide — Fed net liquidity$5.87T +13B/3mo

◄ Draining (QT)Flooding (QE) ►

Flat / steadythe tide under everything

Liquidity is holding steady — neither a push nor a drag on risk right now.

A weighted read of the Fed's reaction function — not a prediction of any single meeting. These are correlations and tendencies, not laws: the Fed reads noisy, revised data with long lags, and why it moves matters as much as whether it does. Source: FRED (Core PCE, CPI, unemployment, fed funds, 10y–2y). Updated 2026-09-18 22:02 UTC. Analysis, not financial advice.